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Prices continue to trade largely sideways around the $5.90/bushel benchmark.
While it marked a stark reversal from October 2021 import volumes, which stood at a meager 28.5 million bushels due to hurricane damage, China’s November 2021 soy imports from the U.S.
But crush margins have returned into negative territory in China, suggesting that lower domestic demand could send ripples into the international soy complex, especially as Brazil’s soybean harvest begins and peak U.S.
Forecasts for bumper harvests in Australia and Argentina and year-end fund selling also weighed on wheat markets overnight Losses were capped by growing concerns about winter wheat crop conditions in the U.S.
Russia’s export tax will rise to $2.559/bushel this week as the Russian government continues to mitigate rising domestic food costs and inflation.
However, preliminary trade flows suggest that China’s muted buying paces from France in November is likely to be temporary and a direct reflection of high prices.
Algeria has already turned to other sources, namely in the Black Sea, for more cheaply priced wheat supplies.
Last week’s torrential windstorms that swept across the Plains and Midwest are believed to have inflicted varying degrees of damage to winter wheat crops, which are slated to enter the dormancy phase as winter begins.
In some of the fields where the damage was most severe, plants were blown out of the ground thanks to shallow root systems from the lack of soil moisture.
“Some acres today no doubt are gone.
But even with lower holiday trading volumes, last week’s storm is likely to continue resonating with market watchers in the weeks to come.
The full extent of damage will likely be realized over the holidays, so if the trade doesn’t escalate reactions to wheat conditions by New Year’s – or if it doesn’t rain in the Plains in the next week – expect a rally when traders return in January.
The Moderna CEO announced overnight that a third dose of its vaccine increased antibodies against omicron by a factor of 37.